Len Friedman's 2004 Kentucky Derby Analysis
Best and deepest field that I can remember. Many horses with a decent shot to win and/or hit the exotics with a lot of close call decisions.
I've divided the field into five catagories--E through A--with the horses in reverse order as usual.
E: (Wouldn't use at any odds)
Birdstone: Nice two year old pattern, but 3yo races are poor and would need too much of a jumpup to be played off recent form.
Action This Day: Had a borderline competitive number first out at three, but last two are poor and there's no reason to expect a sharp change in form here.
D: (Horses on the borderline of being competitive for lower exotic positions although my leaning is to not use them at all)
Song of the Sword: Nice forward moving pattern, but slower than many and running third race in four weeks which is a big negative to me. With the bad timing I'd think his top is as good as you could get and that number doesn't look competitive.
Tapit: Another with a nice line that's on the slow side and drew a tough PP as an additional negative. While I could see a forward move, I wouldn't expect a big jumpup on three weeks rest and the likely outside trip will probably offset a two point move. As his odds will be modest, he's a play against.
Imperialism: A lot of development down to his top two races ago lead me to expect that effort could be the end of the line. Wouldn't expect much better than his last effort at best and that doesn't look good enough here.
Pollard's Vision: Neutral on condition and not better than average on his top in this field. Held on ok in his last two but there's no reason to think he's about to go forward and with a post towards the outside his top doesn't look all that strong here.
Quinton's Gold Rush: Last number would be borderline competitive except that with the outside PP he'll likely give up too much ground loss for a pair up to help him. Third race in four weeks is another negative and he's another who looks to be in a little tough here.
Master David: Had a nice pattern up to his last disappointing effort. Slower than most going in and needs 2-3 points of improvement just to become competitive for exotics. Last effort is not encouraging and while he'll probably improve off that one, his relatively low odds against numbers make him hard to use.
Friends Lake: Decent two year old top, but two relatively disappointing efforts at three. Nice timing into the race, but it's hard to expect anything better than the 2yo top, if that, and that doesn't look good enough in this field. Since FL does have a pattern that looks a little like Sea Hero's and his 2yo top was on a somewhat off track, he would look a little better if the Derby tack is off, although even in that case I lean to passing on him.
C: Usable lightly in exotics for those spreading pretty deep, although I think the negatives on these somewhat outnumber the positives)
Read the Footnotes: Ran a competitive number in next to last and then bounced badly. Showed enough ability at 2yo so the 2" doesn't have to be the end of the line, but with no races since the big bounce he's iffy at best. Medium odds and decent post make him on the borderline of value to me.
Castledale: Not much to go on with a 3 point new top in last (I don't think his best Euro effort was better than the 8- first out in the US). Has a nice four weeks into the race, but the outside post doesn't help as his best is weaker than several others. I lean to leaving him out altogether, but with decent odds it's a borderline decision.
Minister Eric: Decen 2yo pattern betting back to the top going long first time and nice improvement second out at 3yo. His overall pattern is strong to me but the timing into the race is tough. Third effort in four weeks is a big minus and leaves him marginal to me. Good post and long odds make him a light use to me in spite of the negatives.
B: (Competitive horses who could possibly be keys at long odds and are definitely usable in exotics)
Pro Prado: Very solid forward moving pattern, but only three weeks rest off second forward move in a row. Decent shot for another move, but outside PP and ground loss may offset whatever forward move he can come up with. With a good post I was leaning to making him my key, but as it is I think he's just a solid use in exotics at his expected very long odds.
Smarty Jones: One of the three fastest going in, but needs to run a third big effort in a row. Drew outside but has a lot of tactical speed and shouldn't get that bad of a trip, but short odds and possibility that short term pattern is backward moving make him more of a defensive use in exotics to me.
Limehouse: Decent 2yo top and hasn't done anything wrong at 3yo. A little slower than several going in, but inside draw could offset that somewhat and forward move could put him in the hunt. With only three weeks off his last forward move I wouldn't expect a big jump, but I think he's a solid use in exotics and at very long odds a possible speculative key.
The Cliff's Edge: Nice pattern at 2yo with strong 4+ top. First two poor efforts at 3yo had possible excuses (Tam is very difficult to ship into and had gate problems in next to last) and last effort is certainly powerful in here. Will probably react on three weeks rest, but strong 2yo pattern leads me to expect that the reaction will be relatively small. Only has a fair post and may possibly be the favorite in a tough field so he isn't much value, but I have to use him defensively in exotics although I would consider him as a key.
A: (horses who have numbers and/or patterns that are attractive and probable odds that give them enough value to be either win plays or key horses in exotics)
Borrego: Slower than several, but has a strong forward moving pattern and nice timing since his last forward move. Pair up in last may only be a hesitation on the way to another forward move. PP is only fair, but odds should be generous on the horse who I think is most likely to run a new top in the race. A definite possible exotics key to me if the ML odds hold up.
Lion Heart: Lightly raced but has the strongest overall line to me. Only three weeks rest from a top effort in last but pair up of 4s at 2yo leave the possiblility that the 0" won't be the end of the line for him. Could easily see him pairing up or only reacting minimally which, with his good post and likely ground saving trip make him very strong in here and good value in the win pool at his generous ML odds.
I couldn't argue against just playing LH to win and leaving the exotics for the courageous, although I personally lean to going with the slower explosive horse at longer odds as is usually my prejudice.
Good luck to all.
Best and deepest field that I can remember. Many horses with a decent shot to win and/or hit the exotics with a lot of close call decisions.
I've divided the field into five catagories--E through A--with the horses in reverse order as usual.
E: (Wouldn't use at any odds)
Birdstone: Nice two year old pattern, but 3yo races are poor and would need too much of a jumpup to be played off recent form.
Action This Day: Had a borderline competitive number first out at three, but last two are poor and there's no reason to expect a sharp change in form here.
D: (Horses on the borderline of being competitive for lower exotic positions although my leaning is to not use them at all)
Song of the Sword: Nice forward moving pattern, but slower than many and running third race in four weeks which is a big negative to me. With the bad timing I'd think his top is as good as you could get and that number doesn't look competitive.
Tapit: Another with a nice line that's on the slow side and drew a tough PP as an additional negative. While I could see a forward move, I wouldn't expect a big jumpup on three weeks rest and the likely outside trip will probably offset a two point move. As his odds will be modest, he's a play against.
Imperialism: A lot of development down to his top two races ago lead me to expect that effort could be the end of the line. Wouldn't expect much better than his last effort at best and that doesn't look good enough here.
Pollard's Vision: Neutral on condition and not better than average on his top in this field. Held on ok in his last two but there's no reason to think he's about to go forward and with a post towards the outside his top doesn't look all that strong here.
Quinton's Gold Rush: Last number would be borderline competitive except that with the outside PP he'll likely give up too much ground loss for a pair up to help him. Third race in four weeks is another negative and he's another who looks to be in a little tough here.
Master David: Had a nice pattern up to his last disappointing effort. Slower than most going in and needs 2-3 points of improvement just to become competitive for exotics. Last effort is not encouraging and while he'll probably improve off that one, his relatively low odds against numbers make him hard to use.
Friends Lake: Decent two year old top, but two relatively disappointing efforts at three. Nice timing into the race, but it's hard to expect anything better than the 2yo top, if that, and that doesn't look good enough in this field. Since FL does have a pattern that looks a little like Sea Hero's and his 2yo top was on a somewhat off track, he would look a little better if the Derby tack is off, although even in that case I lean to passing on him.
C: Usable lightly in exotics for those spreading pretty deep, although I think the negatives on these somewhat outnumber the positives)
Read the Footnotes: Ran a competitive number in next to last and then bounced badly. Showed enough ability at 2yo so the 2" doesn't have to be the end of the line, but with no races since the big bounce he's iffy at best. Medium odds and decent post make him on the borderline of value to me.
Castledale: Not much to go on with a 3 point new top in last (I don't think his best Euro effort was better than the 8- first out in the US). Has a nice four weeks into the race, but the outside post doesn't help as his best is weaker than several others. I lean to leaving him out altogether, but with decent odds it's a borderline decision.
Minister Eric: Decen 2yo pattern betting back to the top going long first time and nice improvement second out at 3yo. His overall pattern is strong to me but the timing into the race is tough. Third effort in four weeks is a big minus and leaves him marginal to me. Good post and long odds make him a light use to me in spite of the negatives.
B: (Competitive horses who could possibly be keys at long odds and are definitely usable in exotics)
Pro Prado: Very solid forward moving pattern, but only three weeks rest off second forward move in a row. Decent shot for another move, but outside PP and ground loss may offset whatever forward move he can come up with. With a good post I was leaning to making him my key, but as it is I think he's just a solid use in exotics at his expected very long odds.
Smarty Jones: One of the three fastest going in, but needs to run a third big effort in a row. Drew outside but has a lot of tactical speed and shouldn't get that bad of a trip, but short odds and possibility that short term pattern is backward moving make him more of a defensive use in exotics to me.
Limehouse: Decent 2yo top and hasn't done anything wrong at 3yo. A little slower than several going in, but inside draw could offset that somewhat and forward move could put him in the hunt. With only three weeks off his last forward move I wouldn't expect a big jump, but I think he's a solid use in exotics and at very long odds a possible speculative key.
The Cliff's Edge: Nice pattern at 2yo with strong 4+ top. First two poor efforts at 3yo had possible excuses (Tam is very difficult to ship into and had gate problems in next to last) and last effort is certainly powerful in here. Will probably react on three weeks rest, but strong 2yo pattern leads me to expect that the reaction will be relatively small. Only has a fair post and may possibly be the favorite in a tough field so he isn't much value, but I have to use him defensively in exotics although I would consider him as a key.
A: (horses who have numbers and/or patterns that are attractive and probable odds that give them enough value to be either win plays or key horses in exotics)
Borrego: Slower than several, but has a strong forward moving pattern and nice timing since his last forward move. Pair up in last may only be a hesitation on the way to another forward move. PP is only fair, but odds should be generous on the horse who I think is most likely to run a new top in the race. A definite possible exotics key to me if the ML odds hold up.
Lion Heart: Lightly raced but has the strongest overall line to me. Only three weeks rest from a top effort in last but pair up of 4s at 2yo leave the possiblility that the 0" won't be the end of the line for him. Could easily see him pairing up or only reacting minimally which, with his good post and likely ground saving trip make him very strong in here and good value in the win pool at his generous ML odds.
I couldn't argue against just playing LH to win and leaving the exotics for the courageous, although I personally lean to going with the slower explosive horse at longer odds as is usually my prejudice.
Good luck to all.
